Fever Bowl scenarios (22 September 2023)
Prior to the regular-season finales, five of six teams are still in the hunt for the two Fever Bowl berths.frontmodes Kobras in the Northern and the Eagle Eyes in the Southern Division control their own destiny while silentsound's Silentknights and the Prussian Warriors in the North as well as the Jetto Basters in the South will need help.
Niners Sparrows from the Southern Division are the only team prematurely eliminated.
Here are the scenarios for the regular-season finales.
Frontrunners: Eagle Eyes (Southern Division, 4-1)
Their regular-season finale:
Week 6: Jetto Basterds 27, Eagle Eyes 30 (Final)
Games of their interest:
Week 6: frontmodes Kobras 17, silentsound's Silentknights 30 (Final)
Week 6: Niners Sparrows 15, Prussian Warriors 13 (Final)
The Eagle Eyes will win their division and clinch a Fever Bowl berth, if:
- they beat or tie the Basterds or
- SIL (2-3) finish better than WAR (2-3) or
- SIL and WAR (both 2-3) finish tied and
- EYE lose to BAS by under 6 points and
- EYE finish with a better combined point ranking than BAS (EYE behind 6-5 after week 5)
Mathematical odds: 62.5%
Frontrunners: frontmodes Kobras (Northern Division, 2-3)
Their regular-season finale:
Week 6: frontmodes Kobras 17, silentsound's Silentknights 30 (Final)
Game of their interest:
Week 6: Niners Sparrows 15, Prussian Warriors 13 (Final)
The Kobras will win their division and clinch a Fever Bowl berth, if:
- they beat the 'Knights or
- they tie the 'Knights and
- WAR lose/tie vs SPA
Mathematical odds: 50.0%
In the hunt: Jetto Basterds (Southern Division, 3-2)
Their regular-season finale:
Week 6: Jetto Basterds 27, Eagle Eyes 30 (Final)
Games of their interest:
Week 6: frontmodes Kobras 17, silentsound's Silentknights 30 (Final)
Week 6: Niners Sparrows 15, Prussian Warriors 13 (Final)
The Basterds will win their division and clinch a Fever Bowl berth, if:
- they beat the Eagle Eyes and
- WAR (2-3) finish better than SIL (2-3) or
- WAR and SIL (both 2-3) finish tied and
- BAS beat EYE by at least 6 points or
- BAS finish with a better combined point ranking than EYE (BAS ahead 5-6 after week 5)
Mathematical odds: 37.5%
In the hunt: silentsound's Silentknights (Northern Division, 2-3)
Their regular-season finale:
Week 6: frontmodes Kobras 17, silentsound's Silentknights 30 (Final)
Games of their interest:
Week 6: Niners Sparrows 15, Prussian Warriors 13 (Final)
Week 6: Jetto Basterds 27, Eagle Eyes 30 (Final)
The 'Knights will win their division and clinch a Fever Bowl berth, if:
- they beat the Kobras and
- WAR lose/tie vs SPA or
- EYE win/tie vs BAS or
- SIL finish with a better combined point ranking than WAR (SIL behind 8-6 after week 5)
Mathematical odds: 37.5%
In the hunt: Prussian Warriors (Northern Division, 2-3)
Their regular-season finale:
Week 6: Niners Sparrows 15, Prussian Warriors 13 (Final)
Games of their interest:
Week 6: frontmodes Kobras 17, silentsound's Silentknights 30 (Final)
Week 6: Jetto Basterds 27, Eagle Eyes 30 (Final)
The Warriors will win their division and clinch a Fever Bowl berth, if:
- they beat the Sparrows and
- SIL win vs KOB and
- BAS win vs EYE and
- WAR finish with a better combined point ranking than SIL (WAR ahead 6-8 after week 5) or
- KOB@SIL ends in a tie
Mathematical odds: 12.5%
All scenarios mentioned above are subject to correction without prior notice.
When calculating the odds to win the wild card, it is presumed that each team has a 50-percent chance to win their respective games and that no game will end in a tie. Chances to finish with a better combined point ranking than the opposition are not taken into consideration.