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Playoff scenarios: 2 out of 3 (21 March 2021)

Prior to the regular-season finales, three teams are still in the hunt for two playoff spots up for grabs.

While Niners Sparrows and the Prussian Warriors control their own destinies as frontrunners for the remaining playoff spots, the silentsound's Silentknights remain in the hunt, hoping to capitalize from a loss of one of the former two.

The Flash 80s and the Jetto Basterds have already clinched their divisions and are waiting to find out about their opponents for their respective playoff games.

frontmodes Kobras, the Eagle Eyes, the Dicey Beasts and owl49er's billygoats have all been eliminated from playoff contention.

Here are the scenarios for the regular-season finales.



Qualified: Flash 80s (Northcentral Division, 5-0)

Their regular-season finale:
Week 7: Niners Sparrows 10, Flash 80s 23 (QTR4, 8:36)

The 80s have clinched the divisional title and the #1 seed. They will be hosting the wild-card team in the Divisional Playoffs, no matter the outcome of their regular-season finale. They may heavily influence the race for the remaining spots, though.



Qualified: Jetto Basterds (Australian Division, 4-2)

Their regular-season finale: Bye

Games of their interest:
Week 7: Niners Sparrows 10, Flash 80s 23 (QTR4, 8:36)
Week 7: silentsound's Silentknights 37, frontmodes Kobras 17 (Final)

The Basterds have clinched the divisional title and will be playing the Southern Division champion in the Divisional Playoffs. However, they do need help to win the #2 seed and home-field advantage for their playoff game.

The Basterds will win the #2 seed, if:
  • FLA win/tie vs SPA and
    • KOB win/tie vs SIL

Mathematical odds to win the #2 seed: 25.0%



Frontrunners: Niners Sparrows (Southern Division, 3-2)

Their regular-season finale:
Week 7: Niners Sparrows 10, Flash 80s 23 (QTR4, 8:36)

Games of their interest:
Week 7: silentsound's Silentknights 37, frontmodes Kobras 17 (Final)
Week 7: owl49er's billygoats 35, Prussian Warriors 25 (Final)
Week 7: Dicey Beasts 14, Eagle Eyes 17 (QTR3, 2:36)

The Sparrows will win the #2 seed, if:
  • they beat the 80s

Mathematical odds to win the #2 seed: 50.0%

The Sparrows will win their division, if:
  • they beat the 80s or
  • they lose to the 80s and
    • KOB win vs SIL or
  • they tie the 80s and
    • KOB win/tie vs SIL

Mathematical odds to win the division: 75.0%

The Sparrows will win a playoff berth, if:
  • they beat the 80s or
  • they lose to the 80s and
    • KOB win vs SIL or
    • SIL win vs KOB and
      • BIL win vs WAR and
        • EYE win vs BEA or
        • BEA@EYE ends in a tie and
          • SPA win wild-card tiebreaker #6 over WAR (currently: SPA lead 8-11) or
    • SIL@KOB ends in a tie and
      • BIL win vs WAR and
        • EYE win vs BEA or
  • they tie the 80s and
    • KOB win vs SIL or
    • BIL win vs WAR or
    • BIL@WAR ends in a tie and
      • EYE win vs BEA

Mathematical odds to win a playoff berth: 81.25%



Frontrunners: Prussian Warriors (Northcentral Division, 3-2)

Their regular-season finale:
Week 7: owl49er's billygoats 35, Prussian Warriors 25 (Final)

Games of their interest:
Week 7: Niners Sparrows 10, Flash 80s 23 (QTR4, 8:36)
Week 7: silentsound's Silentknights 37, frontmodes Kobras 17 (Final)
Week 7: Dicey Beasts 14, Eagle Eyes 17 (QTR3, 2:36)

The Warriors will win the wild card, if:
  • they beat the billygoats or
  • they lose to the billygoats and
    • KOB win vs SIL or
    • SIL win vs KOB and
      • FLA win vs SPA and
        • BEA win vs EYE or
        • BEA@EYE ends in a tie and
          • WAR win wild-card tiebreaker #6 over SPA (currently: SPA lead 8-11) or
    • SIL@KOB ends in a tie and
      • FLA win vs SPA and
        • BEA win/tie vs EYE or
  • they tie the billygoats and
    • KOB win/tie vs SIL or
    • FLA win vs SPA or
    • SPA@FLA ends in a tie and
      • BEA win/tie vs EYE

Mathematical odds to win the wild card: 81.25%



In the hunt: silentsound's Silentknights (Southern Division, 3-2)

Their regular-season finale:
Week 7: silentsound's Silentknights 37, frontmodes Kobras 17 (Final)

Games of their interest:
Week 7: Niners Sparrows 10, Flash 80s 23 (QTR4, 8:36)
Week 7: owl49er's billygoats 35, Prussian Warriors 25 (Final)

The 'Knights will win the #2 seed, if:
  • they beat the Kobras and
    • FLA win/tie vs SPA

Mathematical odds to win the #2 seed: 25.0%

The 'Knights will win their division, if:
  • they beat the Kobras and
    • FLA win/tie vs SPA or
  • they tie the Kobras and
    • FLA win vs SPA

Mathematical odds to win the #2 seed: 25.0%

The 'Knights will win a playoff bearth, if:
  • they beat the Kobras and
    • FLA win/tie vs SPA or
    • BIL win/tie vs WAR
  • they tie the Kobras and
    • FLA win vs SPA or
    • BIL win vs WAR

Mathematical odds to win the wild card: 37.5%



All scenarios mentioned above are subject to correction without prior notice.

When calculating the odds to win the wild card, it is presumed that each team has a 50-percent chance to win their respective games and that no game will end in a tie.

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